In Syria, Civil War Could Easily Return
Qatar has tried to rebrand radical Islamist groups in the past, painting them moderate only for these organizations to reemerge as radical
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
When Gulf Cooperation Council countries announced on Dec. 1 that they opposed “regional intervention” — meaning the deployment of pro-Iran militias — in Syria and called for a national unity government that included Bashar al-Assad and his opponents, little did they know that in less than a week, Assad and Iran’s proxies would be gone and opposition factions would take over.
Of these factions, Qatar allegedly sponsors the most dominant, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
Qatari media started showcasing his successes in the war on the Islamic State while he was still with al-Qaeda. But by 2021, Jolani had severed his ties with the terrorist group. In an interview with PBS, he appeared in Western attire and said he did not wish to attack the West.
As Assad collapsed, Jolani told CNN that his fight was not a transnational Islamist conflict but a national Syrian one. However, behind him was the Syrian revolution flag and an Islamist flag. Another red flag: HTS rank and file continued to feature scores of foreign fighters.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have been adamant on eradicating political Islam and promoting in its stead a moderate version of Islam, as merely a faith. A takeover of Syria by Islamist HTS does not accord with their vision and policies.
It does not help that Qatar has tried to rebrand radical Islamist groups in the past, painting them moderate only for these organization to reemerge as radical. In 2017, Qatar pressured Hamas to tone down its rhetoric. The Palestinian militant group articulated “its general principles and objectives,” but never endorsed the two-state solution, saying it accepted a Palestinian state on pre-1967 land, while never recognizing Israel. The events of Oct. 7, 2023, showed that Hamas remains far from moderate.
Similarly, Qatar facilitated negotiations that led to a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, after which rights — especially women’s rights — started eroding.
Whether Jolani does eventually emerge as a genuine moderate is anyone’s guess. But if he goes the non-moderate way, expect Saudi Arabia and the UAE to recruit their own protégés to prevent the transformation of Syria into an Islamist emirate. Civil war might then return, this time without Assad — or any road map for redemption.
The writer is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.