Lebanon May Be Ready for Peace With Israel. Both Sides Need to Prepare

With Hezbollah sidelined, both Israelis and Lebanese must start thinking beyond security and cease-fire arrangements and start saying the word peace, louder and louder. The more the P word is uttered,

Hussain Abdul-Hussain

Haaretz

Ask any Lebanese and they will tell you that the vibe in the country has drastically changed since September. Just this week Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that Lebanon is tired of "the wars of others on its territory" this week.

Beirut has aligned itself with Saudi Arabia's peace initiative for a two-state solution between the Palestinians and Israel, in direct opposition to Iran's policies. Aoun was, in effect, telling his Iranian guest that Lebanon will not war with Israel anymore, a message that his Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated before parliament on Tuesday.

While much of the discourse on Hassan Nasrallah's funeral has centered around how many thousands attended, it's clear that the crowd was much smaller than the Iran-backed militia could have mustered two years ago. Hezbollah is weaker and facing trouble maintaining its supporters' loyalty after sacrificing their houses and livelihoods for war with Israel.

From the statements of Hezbollah's uncharismatic new chief Naim Qassem, we can infer that the militia has a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, Hezbollah will now defer to the state on dealing with Israel. On the other hand, the militia is trying to replenish its empty coffers and likely trying to secretly reorganize its fighting force.

Deferring to the state kills two birds with one stone. First, Hezbollah can deflect Shi'ite anger back onto the government. And second, once the militia has rebounded, the organization can argue that the state failed in forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Thus, Hezbollah will have to take matters into its own hands.

Until Hezbollah rebounds, if it ever does, and while Hezbollah is too weak and its base too restless, it's time to make peace.

The Lebanese who seek peace with Israel have an opportunity to make their case in the upcoming parliamentary election, scheduled for May 2026. It helps that for the first time since Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the U.S. sounds serious about pushing for bilateral peace between Lebanon and Israel.

From a political perspective, currently, Hezbollah and its junior ally the Amal Party occupy exactly the 27 seats allocated for Shiites in the 128-seat parliament. The speaker of the parliament too must be Shi'ite. Those who oppose Hezbollah and advocate peace must only win over one of these Shi'ite seats in order to oust Shi'ite Amal Party Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

If they manage to pull off such a feat, parliament will be ripe to revive the May 1983 peace treaty with Israel, which parliament ratified but Syria's then-President Hafez Assad killed.

Indeed, long before the Abraham Accords were fashionable, Lebanon was technically the second Arab country, after Egypt, to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Both Aoun and Salam have promised to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, as stipulated by the November 2024 cease-fire with Israel, which was agreed to also by Berri and Hezbollah. According to this resolution, Lebanon must disarm Hezbollah and demarcate its border with Israel once and for all.

Then, all outstanding issues between the two neighboring countries will have been resolved. The remaining 110,000 Palestinian refugees, sometimes used as an excuse to hold back on Lebanese peace with Israel, are the responsibility of the UN and could be resettled in a third country.

Aoun and Salam have both said that Beirut will toe the Saudi line regarding the two-state solution, which in the Palestinian context means more war, but for Lebanon can mean diplomacy with Israel.

Another impetus propelling Lebanon towards peace is economic. The size of the Israeli economy is 21 times that of its Lebanese counterpart. This can rally Lebanese citizens to demand a bilateral peace with Israel and access a piece of the pie. Normalization serves Lebanon's national interests, regardless of the Arab League and the Palestinian situation.

Since September, sentiments have changed rapidly and many Lebanese have been calling for peace. Behind closed doors, the intelligentsia – politicians, intellectuals and activists – have been strategizing on how best to push for peace. Ideas include decriminalizing contact between the Lebanese and Israelis to promote cross-border discourse. Other ideas include encouraging tying foreign aid for Lebanon with steps toward peace with Israel.

The mere discussion of these ideas would have been anathema a short while ago. But Beirut is now envisioning a future akin to Dubai, aspiring to mirror the prosperous growth of the United Arab Emirates. Mimicking its policies – including normalizing ties with the Jewish state – has been debated in Lebanon for long. What remains missing is a national Lebanese discussion over peace with Israel, which has started, albeit still shy of endorsement.

On Tuesday, Lebanese channel MTV uttered the P word, which has been so far politically toxic. The network raised a question whether peace was coming but included the caveat on whether Israel wants it. Until very recently, the same channel used to refer to Israel as "the Israeli enemy" and to the land across the border with Lebanon "occupied Palestine."

Meanwhile, Druze MP Wael AbuFaour said that U.S. officials have indeed raised the prospect of bilateral peace between Lebanon and Israel with top Lebanese officials, but added that "those who oppose peace are more than those who support it," and that forcing opponents to accept peace would lead to "a clash." He thus suggested that Lebanon stick to a permanent truce with Israel without going the extra step of signing a peace treaty until there may be sufficient popular support.

It will take some time until debating Lebanon's peace with Israel becomes normal. Until that happens, one must appreciate that peace is not rejected anymore as an act of treason, like it used to be until at least November.

Lebanon is not on the cusp of signing a peace treaty with Israel, but it is certainly in the right direction. Hezbollah is scheduled to be disarmed, outstanding issues are scheduled to be resolved, and – while Hezbollah is weak and wounded – the country has a great window of opportunity for peace.

Both Israelis and Lebanese must start thinking beyond security and cease-fire arrangements and start saying the word peace, louder and louder. The more the P word is uttered, the more normal it becomes, the closer we inch toward normalization.