What did Iran strike in Iraqi Kurdistan?
Unlike advertised, Tehran's violence was not against Israel but to force its militias on Iraq's majority coalition, upcoming cabinet
While the world bought Iran’s narrative of striking Irbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan on Sunday, presumably targeting the headquarters of “planning and execution” of an Israeli drone strike operation that had hit an Iranian drone factory in Kermanshah in mid February, Iraqi and Kurdish media argued otherwise.
Iran did not strike Irbil to settle scores with Israel, but to threaten the Kurds against their continued participation in a tripartite coalition (Shia-Sunni-Kurdish) that can form an Iraqi cabinet without representatives of pro-Iran militias.
On October 10, 2021, Iran’s Iraqi militias were humiliated in parliamentary election. The three biggest winners were 1- Shia Sadr, 73 seats 2- Sunnis (two blocs), 51 seats, 3- Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), 31 seats. Total is 155 of 329, ten short of majority.
On January 8, 2022, Iraq’s parliament held its first session and elected — with over 220 votes — Mohammaed Al-Halbusi, a Sunni, as speaker, alongside two deputies: Sadrist Hakim Zamili and KDP’s Shikwan Abdullah. Iran’s lawmakers sued, Supreme Court said election stood.
Since Jan, 2022, Iraq’s anti-Iran tripartite majority coalition has been trying to elect a president, form a cabinet. Iran’s lawmakers broke election session’s two-third quorum. Parties went to court, which said election required two-third of the MPs. Since then, majority coalition has won over independents, reaching the two-third mark.
Iran has so far failed to 1- revoke general election results through street rallies, 2- revoke speaker election in court, 3- stop election of president, PM.
Iran has thus used violence against majority coalition, targeting house of Speaker Halbousi with missiles, trying assassination of KDP official, throwing hand grenades on Sunni parties’ offices.
Iranian violence prompted Shia Sadr to pledge to form a majority cabinet and disband Iran militias. For their part, Iran’s Iraqi militias have threatened with civil war if cabinet is formed without them (for fear that such a cabinet would disarm, disband them).
This week, parliament was expected to meet to elect president, re-select incumbent PM Kadhimi for a second term. IRGC’s Qaani and Iranian “Iraq Envoy” Hasan Far have been in Baghdad trying to convince Sadr to take Shia militias into cabinet, but to no avail. Presidential election and PM selection are scheduled for Saturday March 26.
As part of threatening the majority coalition, Iran struck KDP’s Irbil with 12 ballistic missiles. Even though Iran claimed target was headquarters of “planning and executing, ”i.e. offered tarmac for Israeli drones to take off, strike Iranian factory. Footage showed no tarmacs, only a villa heavily hit.
Struck villa in Irbil belongs to Kurdish oil tycoon Baz Raouf, aka Sheikh Baz, who’s working on connecting Kurdish gas production through pipelines to Mediterranean, a competition to Iranian gas exports when Iran signs new nuclear deal.
To justify its threat to KDP, Iran pretended that missiles targeted Israeli Mossad. New York Times reporter Farnazi Fassihi lent Iran regime credibility by citing a senior US official saying that Iran targeted Israeli Mossad in Iraq. Iranian media quoted Fassihi. But Iraqi politicians thought otherwise.
Since Iran’s attack on Iraq, PM Kadhimi has visited Irbil, met with KDP leader Barzani. A lawmakers’ delegation from the majority coalition, headed by Shia Sadrist and Kurdish deputy speakers, also visited Irbil to express solidarity. If target was Israel in Iraq, unlikely that Sadr would have stuck his neck out for his Kurdish allies.
Realizing the Iranian narrative fell apart, Iranian Iraqi lawmakers launched an all out attack on KDP, scheduled a hearing for PM to blame him for infringement on Iraqi sovereignty. By infringement, those lawmakers did not mean Iranian missiles on Iraq, but Turkish drones hitting inside Iraq in the past and alleged “Israeli presence in Kurdistan.”
Iranian media’s vilification of Kurds went as far as circulating an I24 Arabic interview with former Mossad agent, a certain Eliezer, in which he describes Iraq’s Kurds as a “deterrence for Israel from Iran.”
But Tehran knows that Israel does not need Iraqi Kurdistan to spy on Iran. Israel’s Mossad is already active in Azerbaijan and Bahrain. Israeli drones do not need to take off from Iraq to hit Iran. They can fly at 45k feet, for long hours, and conduct missions far away from the Israeli homeland.
In sum, Iran might have painted its attack on Iraqi Kurdistan as revenge against Israel, but in reality, no one in Iraq or Kurdistan bought the Iranian narrative. Everyone knows that Iran has been using violence to twist the arms of Iraq’s majority coalition to force its proteges into the cabinet and prevent disbanding militias.